Democrats Possibly on Track to Gain up to 4 Governorships Next Week, Forecaster Says

Democrats are well positioned to win two to four more governors’ seats in the midterms, according to a prominent nonpartisan forecaster’s final ratings.

Republicans currently hold 26 governorships and Democrats hold 24, but the Cook Political Report said Republicans could drop to as few as 22 if Election Day goes badly for them. Democrats could climb as high as 28, giving them a majority of the nation’s governors for the first time since 2010.

Thirty-six states are electing governors this year. Cook’s final ratings put 13 races as Solid Democrat, six as Lean Democrat, four as Toss Up, three as Lean Republican, three as Likely Republican, and seven as Solid Republican.

Three of the six Lean Democrat races are in states Republicans now control: Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio. Cook called Iowa, where State Auditor Rob Sand faces Republican Zach Lahn, the Democrats’ surest bet.

In Alaska, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is the only Democrat on a four-candidate ballot under the state’s ranked choice system. Cook said Republicans are concerned that the three Republicans in the race will split the vote.

Cook moved Ohio from Toss Up to Lean Democrat on Oct. 23, citing reactions to an ad featuring Democrat Amy Acton’s estranged mother recently aired by Republican Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign. Ohio remains the hardest of the three for Democrats to flip, the report noted.

Two additional races shifted in Democrats’ favor in Cook’s final update.

Kansas went from Lean Republican to Toss Up in the race between Democratic Sen. Cindy Holscher and Republican Ty Masterson, the state Senate president, to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly.

Cook said Kansas, which President Donald Trump carried by 16 points in 2024, remains Republicans’ best opportunity to flip a Democratic-held governorship, but that the race’s volatility warranted the change.

Nebraska moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. There, Republican Gov. Jim Pillen faces Democrat Lynne Walz in a four-candidate race.

Georgia, which pits Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms against Republican Rick Jackson, “may end up being the closest contest on election night,” the forecaster wrote.

Nevada Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo faces Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, and Wisconsin’s open seat pits Democrat David Crowley against Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany.

Cook named the Oregon race as moving against what it described as a favorable national environment for Democrats. Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek faces Republican Christine Drazan in that race, which Cook still rates as Lean Democrat. The national environment is likely to carry Kotek, the report said.

Republicans are favored to hold Florida, Nebraska, and Texas—all rated Lean Republican—while New Hampshire, Oklahoma, and Vermont are rated Likely Republican.

The ratings come days after the Democratic Governors Association (DGA) committed $10 million each to seven races in its push for a majority.

DGA Communications Director Sam Newton told The Epoch Times Tuesday that the group is going on the offensive in Republican-leaning and swing states in an effort to secure a majority of governorships.

He said the map has largely come down to states Trump won in 2024. He named Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio as the party’s core pickup opportunities, but also pointed to Florida, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Democrats see an opening on the economy, Newton said, arguing that Republican leadership in those states has failed voters.

The Republican Governors Association did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.