Experts release new Rams vs. Cardinals predictions: Carson Beck makes his NFL debut

Carson Beck has never taken a snap in an NFL game. His first ones come Sunday against a Rams pass rush that just got Myles Garrett back.

The rookie from Miami becomes Arizona’s third starting quarterback in three weeks. Jacoby Brissett was traded to Baltimore, and Gardner Minshew hurt his throwing elbow in last week’s 17-3 loss at Seattle (NFL Network reported a feared torn UCL). The Cardinals (3-6) are winless at home and have scored only four touchdowns on their last 17 trips inside the 20.

Los Angeles (5-4) has won three straight since a 2-4 start. Last week it ground out a 20-13 win at Washington: Puka Nacua caught the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, and Garrett had three sacks and a forced fumble in his return from a knee injury. That win was costly. Nacua is out for an extended stretch with knee and toe injuries, Davante Adams is still on IR, and defensive linemen Kobie Turner and Poona Ford have been ruled out. The Rams also remember October, when Chad Ryland kicked six field goals to give Arizona an 18-16 win in Inglewood. Kickoff at State Farm Stadium is 1:05 p.m. PT on CBS.

We compared our data model projections against Kalshi’s prices to find where the value is in this NFC West rematch.

Rams at Cardinals: Detailed Breakdown

Market Trends: Kalshi vs. the Model

On Kalshi, the price equals the break-even probability.

Kalshi has the Rams climbing from the mid-60s on Nov. 3 to 79% now, and that move tracks the Cardinals’ quarterback situation falling apart. The model agrees with the market on the side and the spread. Its edges show up on the touchdown board.

Outright Win

The model gives the Rams a 78.3% chance, which is a fair price of about -361. Kalshi charges 81¢ to buy Rams Yes, and the cheaper route (No on Arizona) is still 80¢. Both cost more than the model’s number. Cardinals Yes at 21¢ is 0.7 points under the model’s 21.7%, which is too thin a margin given that Arizona is starting a rookie with zero NFL snaps. Pass.

The model’s spread widget is about as close to a coin flip as it gets: Rams -9.5 cover 49.6%, Cardinals +9.5 cover 50.4%. Kalshi has Yes at 50¢ and No at 51¢, so both sides cost slightly more than the model’s probability. The case for Arizona is that the first meeting was decided by two points and the Rams are thin at receiver without Nacua and Adams. The case for Los Angeles is Garrett against a first-time starter behind an offensive line missing its center. The model doesn’t take a side. Pass.

The model projects 41 points (25-16), and Kalshi’s line is 38.5. The model’s text summary has a lower score (24-15, 39 points), but both versions land over 38.5. Over Yes costs 53¢ (about -113). The model’s over/under probability wasn’t in the screenshots, so this lean comes from the projected score alone. A few things push in different directions. Arizona’s defense has allowed 28.3 points per game, which helps the over. Arizona’s red-zone offense is stalling, and October’s game was 18-16 because the Cardinals kept settling for field goals, which both hurt it. Lean Over 38.5, small stake.

Team total angle: the model has Arizona at 15 to 16 points against a Kalshi line of 14.5 (Yes 49¢). That’s a slight lean, but it depends on a rookie finishing drives that the team’s veterans couldn’t.

Featured Prop: Touchdown Board

The clearest value is Trey McBride anytime TD (Yes 26¢). The model gives him 29.0%, or +245 fair, and Kalshi’s 26¢ works out to about +285. Rookie quarterbacks in their first starts usually throw to the tight end, and McBride is already Arizona’s go-to target near the goal line. He was targeted on fourth-and-goal from the 2 against Seattle last week. Rookie quarterbacks also tend to check down quickly to a tight end over the middle when they’re under pressure, which suits McBride against this pass rush.

The biggest raw edge is going against Blake Corum (No 56¢). Kalshi prices Corum at 45% to score, but the model has him at 37.5% and has Kyren Williams as the Rams’ main scoring back at 52.8%. If Williams is active and in his usual role, 56¢ for No is worth about 62.5¢.

Allgeier No (70¢ vs. 73.2%) also grades out positive, but it carries the same kind of risk: Bam Knight is in the concussion protocol, so if Knight sits, more carries could go to Allgeier.

The model and Kalshi agree on the result: the Rams win, and a 9.5-point spread is roughly a coin flip. The edges are in the touchdown markets.

Trey McBride anytime TD (Yes 26¢): the model’s fair price is 29¢, and he’s the rookie quarterback’s most likely red-zone target.Blake Corum anytime TD (No 56¢): the model’s fair price is 62.5¢, provided Kyren Williams plays his normal role.

Responsible Gambling

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. In Oregon, call 1-877-MY-LIMIT or visit opgr.org.