Former Clinton Pollster Says This Is Highly Likely to Happen in Michigan after Abdul El-Sayed's Win

It’s not over, but you can already see where Abdul El-Sayed will need to put in serious effort to improve his chances of winning that Michigan Senate seat. AES narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in a tense primary that was expected to be a landslide for him.

Yes, it’s the furthest he has ever advanced in his quest for elected office. It also highlights the strong opposition he faces, as he struggled significantly with black and Jewish voters, the two largest minority groups in the state. He’s also unpopular among rural voters.

The elite class supports him. El-Sayed won none of the counties where college degrees are the lowest share of the electorate. Might as well stamp ‘elitist’ on his forehead.

Abdul El Sayed won ZERO of the 15 counties with the lowest share of college degrees in his Michigan primary. ZERO. pic.twitter.com/F3YIepbBOV— Batya Ungar-Sargon (@bungarsargon) August 6, 2026

CNN: Haley Stevens did well with working-class and African American voters.Abdul El-Sayed "did very poorly" with those groups and "really just" ran up the score in college towns. pic.twitter.com/T3nTOhIFJF— Bobby LaValley (@Bobby_LaVallley) August 5, 2026

The lens to see Michigan's primary tonight is education. MI is -4% less college educated than the nation. El-Sayed's crushing it in "sheepskin counties" like Kent (41% college AES +26) & Washtenaw (59% college, AES +30), Stevens doing much better in Wayne (28% college, HS +8) &… pic.twitter.com/dRLbY9MCVB— Brad Todd (@BradOnMessage) August 5, 2026

It’s not so much about class as it is about education level:• Abdul El-Sayed won 58.4% of the vote in counties where at least 30% of adults have a college degree.• Haley Stevens won 51.4% of the vote in counties where less than 30% of adults went to college. https://t.co/pAGPoVRHOK— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) August 5, 2026

College degrees https://t.co/pKrL1gHp3q— Andrew Kaczynski (@KFILE) August 5, 2026

🚨 WOW! MSNOW is now PANICKING after Democrat voters told her they're voting Mike Rogers (R) because Abdul El Sayed (D) became the MI Senate nominee"Some Democrats I've talked to...on the plane this morning a guy said to me, 'I'm anxious...' he said, 'I voted for Haley… https://t.co/MweVr8G4bb pic.twitter.com/iuEXdhiAyL— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 5, 2026

El-Sayed faces off against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, who, if he can flip Michigan, will secure a lock for a GOP majority in the 2026 midterm Senate races. The race is already considered a toss-up, although it was labeled ‘lean D’ before AES’ win. Former Clinton pollster Mark Penn predicts that Stevens voters will likely cross party lines to vote Republican. Even if only five percent do so, it could tilt the race in favor of Rogers.

💥NEW: Former Clinton Pollster Mark Penn: "It is HIGHLY LIKELY that you're gonna find 5% of those Stevens voters who are gonna switch to the other side — and that ALONE would give a margin of victory to Rogers." pic.twitter.com/QyepqDyclt— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) August 6, 2026

Can El-Sayed pull this off? Will he have the skills to do so? At present, no — not right now:

Q: How are you going to pass Medicare for All?Abdul: my opponent just spent $60M against meQ: How are you going to address affordability?Abdul: something something AIPACHe’s genuinely not very good. https://t.co/1cUbjccKVj— Matt Whitlock (@MattWhitlock) August 6, 2026

Reporter: “Are you comfortable with Abdul El-Sayed’s close association with [Hasan Piker]?”Bernie Sanders: “No” pic.twitter.com/YRRSwdfsEB https://t.co/QwgA7KinqZ— DSA Watch (@DSA_Watch) August 6, 2026

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