The Biggest Story in the Michigan Primaries Was the Turnout Gap

The race for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Michigan was one of the closest and fiercest contests in the nation. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed overcame endorsements from party leadership and a huge ad spend from AIPAC to defeat a more establishment candidate Haley Stevens by less than one point. Pollsters missed big on this race, likely underestimating older and Black voters showing up to the polls. But it’s hard to predict the voter makeup when the state had never seen turnout like this for a non-Presidential-year primary.

Four years ago, when Gretchen Whitmer ran uncontested for reelection, less than 950,000 people cast a ballot in that Democratic race compared to 1.1 million in the Republican primary. Four years before that, participation was nearly a mirror of that with 1.1 million Republicans casting a ballot in their primary and less than a million in the Democratic race. This year, more than 1.5 million Democratic ballots were cast compared to 930,000 Republican ones. The enthusiasm gap this cycle is real.

One good sign for Abdul is Michigan’s huge Democratic turnout advantage:

2018 Governor primary

2026 Governor primary

Primary turnout isn’t…

— BeshearStan (@BeshearStan) August 5, 2026

We’ve seen that in other swing states this year. Democrats cast 14% more ballots in the gubernatorial race in Georgia than Republicans, despite Republican candidates spending more than 13 times as much money on their primary. In North Carolina, 24% more Democratic ballots were cast for the Democratic Senate primary than the Republican race. Even in red states like Texas and Ohio, Democrats edged out Republicans at the polls during the primary.

It’s no surprise—with an out-of-touch, serial lier of a President who has routinely put his own interests ahead of his constituents and whose approval rating is smashing all-time lows—that enthusiasm among Democratic voters is outpacing their Republican counterparts. But to have more than 50% more voters show up for a primary in Michigan, a state that Trump won just two years ago, is still remarkable.

Part of the increase in total votes can be attributed to Michigan making early and absentee voting easier, but that doesn’t account for the difference between parties. The lack of enthusiasm among voters who’ve traditionally cast Republicans ballots has made Senate races in places like Iowa, Alaska, Texas and Ohio truly competitive.