Three Senate Races Shift Toward Democrats with Midterms 4 Weeks Away
Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power.
Three Senate races have just shifted in favor of Democrats four weeks ahead of the midterm elections as Republicans are attempting to maintain their control. The Cook Political Report has moved Kansas' race from Lean Republican to a Toss Up, New Hampshire from a Toss Up to Lean Democrat and North Carolina from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them.
Republicans now hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate. President Donald Trump carried Kansas by double digits over then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, underscoring the state’s Republican tilt. But Democrats have maintained a foothold in the state, with Laura Kelly in the governor’s mansion even as Republicans hold both U.
S. Senate seats. Trump also won North Carolina in the 2024 election and Harris won New Hampshire.
The new shifts add to already worrisome signs for Republicans as Democrats hope to capitalize on Trump's souring approval ratings and as affordability concerns rise across American households. "At this point, the question isn’t whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many," the forecaster said in part. What To Know Cook now estimates Democrats will pick up two to six Senate seats, as the party needs four to take control.
Cook highlights that Republicans remain hopeful in Michigan and Maine, but the momentum is against the president's party as Election Day nears. In Kansas, the GOP could lose the seat held by Republicans since 1919, the longest ever for any party, High Plains Public Radio says. The position is currently held by Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall, a doctor, who is battling Democrat Adam Hamilton for the seat.
According to recent polling, Hamilton either leads by a very slim margin or the race is statistically tied. The forecaster previously highlighted that agriculture—and economic concerns impacting fertilizer and gas—are major factors in the Sunflower State and the rising prices make the race more competitive. Cook labeled the race "Democrats’ Cinderella story of the cycle."
Prediction market site Kalshi shows Marshall in the lead on Tuesday afternoon, as does Polymarket. In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas is leading over Republican John E. Sununu in the battle for the U.
S. Senate seat. The forecaster points to recent polling as the reason for the shift but says, "This race could still end up being closer than it should be given the national environment."
Notably, the state has not elected a Republican senator in more than 15 years. Sununu represented the Granite State in the Senate from 2003 to 2009. Kalshi and Polymarket show Pappas in the lead on Tuesday afternoon.
In North Carolina, Republican nominee Michael Whatley is trailing behind former Governor Roy Cooper in a slew of polls. Recently, Trump vocalized his concerns about Whatley as the Senate Leadership Fund paused advertising for the race to redirect resources elsewhere. Trump held a rally for Whatley in the Tar Heel State last month as the president vowed to campaign across the country for Republicans in the lead-up to November.
Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election in the state in about 18 years.
Kalshi and Polymarket show Cooper ahead of Whatley on Tuesday afternoon. Democrats are hoping to capitalize on Trump's dropping approval ratings in state and national polls as the midterm elections loom. The president's overall approval and ranking on key policy issues like the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have slipped as households across America are flagging affordability concerns.
Robert Y. Shapiro, professor of political science at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia, told Newsweek on Tuesday, "It is clear that on almost all fronts the election is moving in the direction of the Democrats taking the House and very possibly the Senate." Shapiro added: "On the Senate side they have to hold on to Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire where the Republicans are in play, which will keep the matter of control of the Senate tight for the Democrats.
Polls on overall voting for Congress are solidly in the Democrats favor at an 8 point lead or better, and the most telling trend showing that the election may be a very strong refutation of Trump and Republican leadership is that Trump's performance rating has fallen noticeably among Republicans, with continued tanking among Independent voters." Map Shows New Senate Toss-Up Races Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas
