Trump Money Machine Set to Surrender Swing Seat He Won

Donald Trump’s political money machine is preparing to abandon a vulnerable Michigan House race, pulling its cash from a district the president carried in 2024 as Republicans scramble to protect their congressional majorities.

The move signals a recognition that Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet has the advantage over Republican challenger Tom Smith.

Trump won the district by roughly 50 percent to 48 percent in 2024, making it one of 13 House districts that backed him for president while electing a Democrat to Congress. The Cook Political Report now rates the seat “Likely Democrat.”

The Daily Beast has contacted MAGA Inc and Smith’s campaign for comment.

One senior GOP official said the strategy involves “re-allocating, not cutting” spending, shifting money away from races deemed less attainable and toward campaigns where it could make a difference.

“Over the next week to 10 days you will see a lot of moves — a lot of coordinated moves — that are around trimming the map for the home stretch,” the GOP official said. “It’ll be all over the place. It’ll just just be moving on from districts that we don’t think it’s the right time for, and piling in further on ones we think it is the right time for.”

Top Republican Senate groups have already stopped spending in North Carolina and scaled back in Georgia, though millions more are still planned for the latter.

The moves come as Republicans brace for a difficult midterm election, with several House districts Trump won by double digits in 2024 now considered vulnerable. At-risk seats stretch across Ohio, Maine, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada, as well as a Kentucky district Trump carried by 15 points.

That is significant because Ohio and Iowa are among the states that Trump allies see as crucial to keeping their Senate majority. Winning two of the three would make it harder for Democrats to take control of the Senate, one senior Republican official told Politico, while sweeping all three would put the chamber further out of reach.

But Republicans must also defend vulnerable seats in Texas and elsewhere while trying to flip a Democratic-held state.

Polling, however, suggests it will be a difficult road ahead for the GOP.

Pollster Angus Reid has Democrats up 16 points on the generic congressional ballot—their biggest lead yet. That is just one of many polls that have Democrats clearly ahead of the GOP, raising the possibility that Republicans could lose not just the House but the Senate too.

The tide has been turning against Trump and his party ever since he launched his deeply unpopular war on Iran in February.

The war has caused energy prices to spike. AAA figures show the average price of fuel in the U.S. at $4.35 a gallon, while diesel stands at $6.26.

Amid the grim polling, MAGA Inc. and allied super PACs are pumping millions into Republican races, including contests in traditionally safe GOP territory.

MAGA Inc. has spent more than $22 million in Texas over the past month to support Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, with at least another $5 million expected.

That is because Paxton has struggled to explain away the many controversies that have dogged him, including a past charge of securities fraud.

In Ohio, the Senate Leadership Fund has spent nearly $100 million as Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Republicans are also preparing to spend heavily in Kansas to defend Sen. Roger Marshall.

MAGA Inc. and its affiliates have spent just over $200 million this cycle, including future advertising reservations, despite holding a war chest exceeding $400 million.

One senior Republican official has promised the group will “unload the tank” in the final stretch, while stressing that candidates themselves must persuade voters to back them.